応答曲面法およびベイズ理論に基づく構造信頼性設計手法の提案

概要

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In performing structural design or demonstrating the reliability of electronic devices, it is necessary to take various scatters into consideration which are induced in the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analyses and manufacturing. Therefore, a new method for probabilistic reliability design for electronics packages is proposed in this paper. In this method, firstly the probability distributions of the characteristic values such as stress values are calculated by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and the Monte Carlo method. Consequently, the fracture probability can be derived by comparison of the probability distributions with the design criteria. Secondly, the probability on many assumptions can be updated using a new method based on Bayes theory for the purpose of estimating the reliability of the packages more accurately in combination with actual data or reliability tests. The new method was applied for the structural design of flip-chip BGA packages. The results of the application fro flip-chip BGA package design indicate that the new method is useful for the structural reliability design.ハードウェア製品の信頼性に関与する各要因の応力やひずみなどの構造応答日及ぼす感度を統計的に把握する手法を提案した．
2001-08-25