事業者と利用者の対策効果を考慮した供給系ライフラインの地震時機能停止の影響評価モデル

概要

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Lifeline disruptions in earthquake disaster seriously affect user's daily lives and socio-economic activities. In this paper, an assessment model for effects of utility lifeline disruptions has been developed taking account of countermeasures by both suppliers and users. First, time-dependent probability distributions of 2^3 disruption patterns of three lifelines are evaluated on the basis of seismic intensities, vulnerability of pipelines and post-earthquake emergency shutdown controls. Users' time-dependent activity levels normalized to 1 at normalcy are evaluated for each disruption pattern considering acceptable outage time due to back-ups. Two time functions are combined to evaluate area-wide activity levels in the disaster-stricken area, aiming at minimization of the overall impact.