南海トラフの巨大地震を想定した広域震度予測

概要

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Estimation of extensive distributions of seismic intensity in Tokai region including Aichi, Gifu, Mie, and Shizuoka prefectures was performed for the hypothetical large-scale earthquakes in the Nankai Trough region. In the analysis, the fault parameters of the hypothetical earthquakes of Tokai, Tounankai, and their coupled earthquakes were referred to those estimated by the National Disaster Prevention Council, of Japan. The two computer programs developed by the authors were used ; one is the simulation technique, EMPR, for non-stationary strong motion time histories on the upper surface of so-called engineering basemental rock, and the other is the seismic response analysis for the multi-layered surface ground model, FDEL, which incorporates the eRect of frequency dependent equivalent strain characteristics on the shear rigidity and damping. The soil structure models for surface geology assigned to approximately 120,000 points equally distributed in the region were used. The typical characteristics on the seismic intensity distributions for the three hypothetical earthquakes were derived, and the areas of severe seismic intensities were compared in the three hypothetical earthquakes. The results of seismic intensity distributions are useful as the fundamental data for earthquake disaster prevention.
2003-05-30