震度曝露人口による震災ポテンシャル評価の試み

概要

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A simple measure, PEX (population exposure to seismic intensity), has beenproposed for assessment of seismic disaster potential. The PEX is aimed at representing the overlapped effect of two major contributors to the impact of seismic disaster: the distribution of seismic intensity as a natural factor, and that of population as a social factor which is highly correlated with built environment and socioeconomic activities. The PEX is evaluated as an aggregation of spatially distributed population exposed toa certain level of seismic intensity. Retrospective assessment has been done for fivedestructive earthquakes in Japan (the 1891 Nohbi earthquake, the 1944 Tohnankai earthquake, the 1945 Mikawa earthquake, the 1948 Fukui earthquake and the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake). Prospective assessment has also been done for six prefectures (Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Shizuoka, Nagano and Yamanashi) potentially affectedby three types of anticipated earthquakes in Nankai Trough region (the Tokai, Tohnankai and their coupled earthquakes). The results in as measural by PEX have been shown in comparative perspective: difference in magnitude, intra- / inter- plate events, past / future disasters. The proposed measure can be used for macroscopic assessment of damage as well as for intuitive understanding of the impact of seismic disasters.
2004-11-30