A Demographic Study of Hokkaido and the Rest of Japan : The Application of the Multiregional Demographic Model

概要

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In order to study the demographic behaviour of Hokkaido in relation to the national context, a multiregional demographic model, developed by Andrei Rogers in 1978, was adopted. Conventional demographic models deal with single-region populations which are assumed to be closed to migration. However, internal migration has been recognized as a dominant phenomena in interregional disparities. Thus, the multiregional demographic model was examined. The life table and projection matrix, like in the single-region model forms the methodological core of the multiregional model with its three sets of components-stocks, events and flows. This model was applied to a two-region study of Hokkaido and Rest of Japan using 1980 data. The multiregional life table, which describes the mortality and mobility history of a cohort, was computed. From this life table, a projection growth matrix with age-specific birth rates of parents, and survivorship rates was computed and a 40-year projection was derived. The multiple reiteration of this projection will ultimately converge in the stable population. Results of the computations show a striking high rate of out-migration of young people in the 15-19 years age-group from Hokkaido. The rapid change in age structure over the 40-year projection period for both regions is another striking observation.
北海道大学の論文
1985-01-11