海上交通安全評価のための技術的ガイドライン策定に関する研究-II : 潜在的操船水域の概念に基づく操船の安全性評価

概要

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In order to assess the marine traffic safety, three kinds of stresses such as : (1)the burden due to environmental conditions, (2)the risk during the ship handling and (3)the task load due to ship's manoeuvrability should be taken into account. In the previous paper, the Environmental Stress (ES) model has been proposed to evaluate the ship handling difficulty. In the present paper, the relationship between the "difficulty" and the "risk" is described, and the methodology of evaluating the risk hidden in the ship handling process is proposed. Under the condition that the rudder angle and the engine revolution will not be changed, a ship's pass can be predicted by the MMG model. The envelope area drawn by these predicted paths is needed to avoid the hidden collision risk against a ship or shore. We call this Potential Area of Water (PAW). The level of the risk potential is calculated as the time to collision. This evaluating method and the ES model were applied to the experiment using ship handling simulator. It was made clear that the results of the calculation based on these models were in accordance with the rating by the subjects of the experiment.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
1998-09-25