不安全操船状態を指標とする操船の安全性評価モデル

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Safety evaluations of ship handling are in fact dependent on subjectivity due to the imperfect objective index used for evaluating the results of experiments using a ship-handling simulator. In the present paper, a safety evaluation index that objectively determines the quantitative risks of collision and stranding when the experiment is executed using a ship-handling simulator is proposed, by noting Unsafe Ship Handling Situations. An Unsafe Ship Handling Situation is defined as a condition in which the risk becomes obvious in the near future by maintaining the present maneuvering condition unaltered in spite of an accident not having occurred. It can be determined, in each time section, in terms of whether or not the Time To Collision (TTC) exceeds the Short Stopping Time (SST) under the corresponding speed. According to the Heinrich's Law, an Unsafe Ship Handling Situation corresponds to the detection of some several thousand hidden unsafe situations behind one obvious case of an accident. The appearance ratio of the proposed Unsafe Ship Handling Situation and the accident ratio in the corresponding sea area coincide with the order of 10^<-3>. This means that, by deriving the number of Unsafe Ship Handling Situations from a series of ship handling processes, the underlying accident risk in the process of ship handling may be estimated from the relation with this ratio of 10^<-3>. The proposed safety evaluation index for Unsafe Ship Handling Situations is considered to be an objective index that is unbiased towards subjectivity, and to contribute to maintaining the universality of the results on a reasonable probabilistic basis.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文
2004-03-25

不安全操船状態を指標とする操船の安全性評価モデル

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