小障害物の存在に適用できる不安全操船モデルの他船との衝突リスク評価への適用性の検討

概要

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Unsafe Ship-handling model (US-model) is known as an evaluation method, which analyzes the potential risk of marine accidents. In previous paper, this conventional model was improved for evaluating small obstacles such as the bridge pier. In this time, we aim to improve the conventional model to be able to evaluate the occurrence of unsafe situation for the collision risk against ships definitely. In ship-handling simulator, several traffic situations were set. From the experience's results, we cleared that following 2 points. - (1) In case of that one ship's size and crossing angle were changed, if the crossing angle was 135 degree and ship size became less than 80m, the gap of calculation's results between conventional model and improved model much occurred. - (2) In case of that all ship size were changed parametrically, if the ship size became less than 80m, the gap of calculation's results much occurred too. It shows it comes to application limit of conventional model, and to application area of improved model. In this experiment, this gap makes the precision difference of marine accidents ratio in 1.9×10^<-5>〜10^<-6>. But calculation time of improved model is very much than conventional one. So, it is necessary to decide an application of improved model by choosing a precision or calculation's time.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
2008-03-25