イスタンブール海峡における海上交通の安全評価

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The traffic condition in the Strait of Istanbul has navigational difficulties because of the geographical restriction and the traffic congestion. The recent statistics indicate that marine traffic has been increasing and volume of tanker traffic is anticipated becoming double in coming year and triple by 2010 due to the increase of transportation of the Caspian Oil. On the other hand, the navigational rule in the Strait of Istanbul has been changed twice in 1982 and 1994 to improve the navigational safety. So that, the terms for analysis were divided into three periods; from 1965 to 1982, from 1982 to 1994 and from 1994 to present. Marine accidents occurred in the strait were analyzed for three periods. The increase of the marine accidents occurred in the strait was remarkable in spite of the improvement of navigational rule in the strait. In the present paper, the Environmental Stress Model was applied to evaluate the ship handling difficulties in the strait for each period and the fast-time simulation was employed in which each ship navigate on the fixed route at the fixed speed without collision avoidance action. As the result calculated stress values indicate the ship handling difficulties in the strait and difference of difficulties among three periods. The analysis of the ship handling difficulties was also carried out under the future conditions that the volume of tanker traffic becomes double and triple. As a conclusion the risk levels of the strait in the future conditions were estimated on the basis of the comparison of the correlation between the number of marine accidents and the environmental stress values. The results of this study provide us concrete idea of countermeasure for safety improvement of the navigation in the Strait of Istanbul.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
2003-09-25

イスタンブール海峡における海上交通の安全評価

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