ADS予測位置誤差の縦方向重畳確率への影響

概要

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An oceanic air traffic control system based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance(ADS) displays interpolated aircraft positions using the information on the down-linked present position and predicted future position of aircraft. The interpolation errors increase with the elapsed time from the latest reported time. The longitudinal overlap probability is one of the key parameters of a longitudinal collision risk model. It depends upon the distribution shape of the position estimation errors. When considering the longitudinal collision risk for aircraft pairs, in general, we deal with the case where the effects of the interpolation errors on the relative position estimation errors become maximal. In this case, it is believed that the case of simultaneous reporting is the most conservative. However, it may not be true for the case that the interpolation error distribution has a non-zero bias. This paper examines the validity of the assumption of simultaneous reporting from the viewpoint of longitudinal overlap probability using a double exponential distribution model with a bias. The results of the analyses indicated that the assumption was not necessarily valid for the case.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
2005-03-25