人力飛行機長距離飛行におけるダウンスケール気象予測の適用とその検証

概要

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Research of Long-Distance Human-Powered Flight has been performed through the following four items: Aircraft design, Risk management, Pilot performance, Weather prediction. Actual flight took place on August 12, 2009. The flight distance was 20.72km. In this study, results of weather prediction using 1-way downscaling technique are validated by surface observation data and feasibility of weather prediction for Long-Distance Human-Powered Flight is discussed. The weather prediction with 1-km mesh decreases RMSE of wind speed by 0.1--0.2m/s compared with that with 5-km mesh. The weather prediction with 1-km mesh also has a potential to reproduce nonstationary wind. The RMSE gradually increase with time, which is mainly caused by initial and boundary data given from coarse mesh model. To reduce the RMSE, it is desirable to use newest analysis data as possible for initial and boundary data.