水資源コンフリクトにおけるThird Partyの調整効果に関する研究

概要

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The graph model for conflict resolution is used to formally analyze an ongoing conflict between India and Bangladesh over the regulation of the Ganges River in order to illustrate the crucial role a Third Party can play in resolving the dispute. Because a Third Party can assist in resolving a dispute in a variety of ways, a general systems approach to conflict management with a Third Party is devised. The strategic analysis of the India/Bangladesh conflict using the graph model clearly shows that one can determine, in advance, exactly how a Third Party can influence potential resolutions to the dispute.In this study, one of the roles of a Third Party, Coordinator, is focused on. As a result of applying the procedure of the conflict management with a Third Party to India/Bangladesh conflict, it is shown that mutual belief between Bangladesh and India is built up, and the outcome which means the improvement of the conflict situation can be realized although the outcome cannot be achieved under the settings of the actual ongoing conflict without a Third Party.Furthermore, when stakeholders compose a hierarchy system, the regulation effect of the hierarchy system is considered using the concept of Stackelberg Equilibrium, and it is shown that the system would bring positive effect for improving the actual conflict situation under a certain condition.JEL Classification : C62, C65, C72
日本地域学会の論文