航跡による航行の危険性と変針上の余裕に関する評価法

概要

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A new method was proposed in order to evaluate the results of route keeping maneuver in a given fairway. Risk of the maneuver at any gatelines in the fairway was indicated by the index of risk of grounding, which was calculated as the ratio of the required traveling distance for recovering ship's original course to the afford distance from present ship's position to the edge of the fairway. The distribution of this index was looked upon the margin of the maneuver, which was expressed in terms of the entropy concept. To examine the validity of this idea, it was applied to the traffic situation at Kurushima Strait, which is one of the most dangerous narrows in Japan. Traffic data such as ship's tracks, sizes and values of speed there were collected by taking many photographes of radar PPI and visual observation. According to the analysed results, it was founded that the distributions and degrees of risk-index at sampled gates were well corresponded to the subjective evaluations by navigators.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
1983-09-25