郵便物交流量の解析

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This study is an examination of the validity of application of the gravity model to the quantity of interregional flow of mail. The gravity model applied to the quantity of interregional flow of mail between the ith and the jth regions M_<ij> is expressed by M_<ij>=k(M_i.M.j>/(M D_<ij^α> where M_i. is the quantity of mail generated in the ith region, M._j the ^.quantity of mail received in the jth region, M the total quantity of mail generated in all the region questioned, and k and α are parameters. This model could be applied to the quantity, but it could not be regarded as a model which gives us a good estimate of future quantity of interregional flow of mail provided that only the future quantities of M_i., M._j, and M, and the future value of D_<ij> are known, and the values of parameters k and α do not change. However, it is concluded that if the model is modified, and it is expressed by M_<iJ>=k(M_i.M._j)/M D_<ij^α>Q_<ij> and if Q_<ij> is stable or gradually change with time, this model is a good model for practical forecast of the quantity of interregional flow of mail, where Q_<ij> is the specific coefficient for the M_<ij>. Incidentally, the reason why the quantity of the interregional flow of mail is expressed by the gravity model is discussed. It should be emphasized that we can apply the gravity model to many kind of social phenomena, person trip, commodity flow, and interchange of mail, and this fact is similar to the fact that laws like the law of universal gravitation are also found in the fields of electricity and magnetism.
流通経済大学の論文

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鈴木啓祐
流通経済大学

郵便物交流量の解析

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