経済変動と物資輸送量

概要

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This is the statistical or econometric study of the influence of economic fluctuation upon the quantity of goods transported. Using the data of the gross national expenditure and some kinds of the quantities of goods transported from 1951 to 1966 in Japan, we get the graphs shown in Fig. 3 and 4 which show the relation between the real gross national expenditure Y and the quantities of goods transported (total quantities of goods transported expressed by weight [ton]W_<(T)> and expressed by weight and distance [ton-kilometer] W^*_<(T)>, the quantities of goods transported by freight cars or trucks expressed by weight W_<(L)> and expressed by weight and distance W^*_<(L)>, and the quantities of goods transported by ships expressed by weight W_<(W)> and expressed by weight and distance W^*<(W)>. In Fig. 3 and 4, we can find not only the fact that the quantities of goods explained by gross national expenditure, but also the fact that the former is not explained sufficiently by the latter. The points having the symbol "↖" suggests that the quantities may be also explained by the economic fluctuation itself, as they appear beneath the line showing the trend found in the relation between the quantities and gross national expenditure. Therefore, the model having the form: Ω_t=f(X_<1t>, X_<2t>) was built, where Ω_t is the quantity of goods transported, X_<1t> is the index of economic activity, and X_<2t> is that of economic fluctuation. And three types of model: Type WYX Ω_t=a_0+a_1X_<1t>+a_2X_<2t> Type LWYX logΩ_t=a_0+a_1X_<1t>+a_2X_<2t> Type LWLYLX logΩ_t=a_0+a_1logX_<1t>+a_2logX_<2t> are applied to the data. The coefficients of multiple correlation of all the models showed high values. All the values of the parameter a_1 were positive, and their standard errors were very small. And most of the values of the parameter a_2 were positive, but their standard errors were large. Therefore, it was not clear statistically whether the economic fluctuation itself influenced upon the quantity of goods transported or not. However, the fact that the values of the parameter a_2 in many models were almost positive suggested that the existence of the influence of the economic fluctuation upon the quantity of goods transported. Incidentally, in a few models, the value of the parameter a_2 was negative. But, the standard errors of the parameter a_2 which showed negative value were very large, whereas the standard errors of the parameter a_2 which showed positive value were not so large. This fact also suggested the existence of the influence of the economic fluctuation upon the quantity of goods transported.
流通経済大学の論文

著者

鈴木啓祐
流通経済大学

経済変動と物資輸送量

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概要

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