浦賀水道航路における分離航行の効果の推定

概要

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Failure probability of collision avoidance in Uraga route was calculated from the estimated number of occurrences of the dangerous encounter in Uraga route by the estimation theory of the number of dangerous encounter and the number of collision accidents in Uraga route picked up from the statistical reports. Failure probability before the separation scheme was came into force was also estimated by the same method. Furthermore, a decrease in number of collisions when a speed control would be added to the present separation scheme was predicted. The estimated failure probability of collision avoidance without separation scheme is 2.03×10^<-4> and that with separation scheme is 8.525×10^<-5>. These values are harmonized with the values based on field measurements by some researchers. The decreasing ratio of collision probability by introduction of the separation scheme in Uraga route is considered to be well explained by the method. This method can be well applied to development of effective navigational management or introduction of separation scheme to the other sea area.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
2003-03-25