Marine Safety Evaluation System by Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Method

概要

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U.K. proposed new methodology for consideration of safety regulations at 62^<nd> MSC meeting 1993. The method is called FSA (Formal Safety Assessment). FSA is application of PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment), therefore risk is an index of safety. One of the most important part of FSA is to evaluate of the risk of the target ship with safety measures which would be forced to be equipped by considered safety regulations. Ship Research Institute has been developing a system which enabled to obtain the risk by utilizing scientific method. The system would be extended to be able to carry out whole process of FSA. To obtain the risk, probability and consequence of every accident must be evaluated. The system under development can evaluate consequence of accident by disaster escalation and evacuation simulation. In this paper the following items are shown. (1) The whole methodology and system for risk evaluation are proposed, (2) CAS (Consequence Analysis System) which evaluate loss of human lives at every considered accident is explained, and (3) Trial assessments of 2 safety measures by CAS are introduced.
独立行政法人海上技術安全研究所の論文
2001-03-31