リスク評価の船舶設計への応用-火災リスク評価手法の開発 : リスクベース設計に向けて(<特集>リスク評価)

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Since around 1996, the authors have developed a fatality risk evaluation methods utilizing ship design information directory aiming at designing an individual ship. Risk is defined as a frequency of an accident and the fatalities caused by the accident, and accuracy of those is important for risk analysis. Furthermore when designing an individual ship it is not desirable to spend much time in risk analysis. The simulation based risk analysis method which is used in design of an individual ship was developed considering such things. SAFEDOR which is one of EU6 research projects, aims at Risk-Based Design which deals with safety as one of parameters of objective function not as a restriction. In SAFEDOR fatality risk is estimated using simulation programs, which are time-based flooding simulation, fire escalation simulation, evacuation simulation and etc. The approach is same as the ours. In this paper an outline of the fatality risk estimation methods of an individual ship, data-base of ship design information developed for managing data in order to enable to carry out several simulations easily, methods for enabling to shorten time consumed for simulations and an example of fire risk analysis as an application of these developed methods are shown. Furthermore to improve accuracy of fire risk evaluation, fire escalation prediction methods are discussed, verification of a two zone model program and a CFD model program for prediction of fire escalation by experiments, and shoat time estimation method for obtaining accurate fire risk by combining a 2 zone model program and a CFD model program are proposed.
独立行政法人海上技術安全研究所の論文
2009-03-20

リスク評価の船舶設計への応用-火災リスク評価手法の開発 : リスクベース設計に向けて(<特集>リスク評価)

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