Evaluation of a Method for Issuing Warnings Pre-epidemics and Epidemics in Japan by Infectious Diseases Surveillance
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
BACKGROUND: Simple methods have been developed to warn of pre-epidemics and epidemics in small areas using data of infectious diseases surveillance. Epidemic warnings are made if the index of cases per week per sentinel medical institution is greater than a defined value. A pre-epidemic warning means that an epidemic warning will be given in the following four weeks. While the methods are used routinely for surveillance in Japan, they remain to be validated.METHODS: Infectious diseases surveillance data of influenza-like illness and 12 pediatric diseases in the fiscal year between 1999 and 2001 were used in the analysis. We examined the frequency of warnings, temporal changes in the index before and after the onset of a warning, and the sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of pre-epidemic warnings.RESULTS: For the majority of the diseases investigated, the proportion of weeks in which a warning was issued ranged between 0% and 10%. In several diseases including influenza-like illness, we observed a rapid increase and gradual decrease in the index before and after a warning. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of a pre-epidemic warning were 90.4%, 93.7% and 23.9% for influenza-like illness, and ranged between 25.1-54.2%, 86.1-99.2%, and 2.5-20.8% for the pediatric diseases (chickenpox, rubella, measles, and mumps), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that the methods used for determining whether or not to issue an epidemic warning were satisfactory in some diseases, including influenza-like illness, and may need to be improved in several other diseases.
- 日本疫学会の論文
著者
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HASHIMOTO Shuji
Department of Physiologic Laboratory, National Cardiovascular Center
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NAGAI Masaki
Department of Public Health, Saitama Medical School
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Taniguchi Kiyosu
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
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Nagai M
金沢大学 医学系研究科皮膚科学
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Nagai Masaki
Department Of Aeronautics And Astronautics University Of Tokyo
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MURAKAMI YOSHITAKA
Epidemiology and International Health Research Section, Environmental Health Sciences Division, Nati
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Taniguchi K
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center National Institute Of Infectious Diseases
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Taniguchi Kiyosu
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center National Institute Of Infectious Disease
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Murakami Yoshitaka
Epidemiology And International Health Research Section Environmental Health Sciences Division Nation
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OSAKA Ken
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases
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FUCHIGAMI Hiroshi
Saitama Health Promotion Corporation
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Osaka Ken
Infectious Disease Surveillance Center National Institute Of Infectious Diseases
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Hashimoto Shuji
Department Of Applied Biological Chemistry Faculty Of Agriculture Niigata University
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