部分尤度を用いた標識再捕からの死亡係数の推定

概要

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This paper considers the partial likelihood procedure for estimating fishing and natural mortality rates from tag recoveries. We consider the likelihood function of the multinomial model, and two models of mortality rates with a change-point against constant mortality are introduced. Explicit estimators of fishing mortality rates are derived. The asymptotic variances of total mortality rates and fishing mortality rates are also obtained explicitly, though a simple numerical solution is needed for estimating the total mortality rates. The procedure was applied to recovery data of red seabream Pagrus major in the Seto Inland Sea. The partial likelihood worked in the same way as the full one and was effective. It took about only four minutes to obtain estimates using partial likelihood, but it took about eight hours from the approach of full likelihood. Partial likelihood is powerful for analysis under the multinomial model.
日本水産學會の論文