海上輸送システムにおける意思決定の確率論的評価 : −フィードバック方式による動的イベントツリー生成手法の提案−

概要

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Enterprises are likely to make a decision based on only a few likely combinations of various possibilities of internal and external business situations. Because the future from present standpoint is aggregate of various possibilities, it is appropriate to make a decision based on the analysis which considers all the necessary scenarios probabilistically. Our former paper applies a PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) concept to a decision making problem in maritime transportation system and shows that probabilistic approach can be highly useful not only for safety but also for enterprise decision making with some modifications. But the above procedure accompanies a lot of analysts subjective judgments, man hour and computational time to execute. This paper proposes a dynamic event tree generation method by feedback system to mitigate these difficulties and applies it to a realistic decision making problem in maritime transportation system to demonstrate its applicability and usefulness.
社団法人　日本船舶海洋工学会の論文