日中間物流の将来予測に基づく船舶設計手法に関する研究

概要

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Recently the amount of trade between China and Japan has been increasing. The trade value has grown by about 920% from 18.2 billion dollar in 1990 to 168 billion dollar in 2004. This paper presents a ship design procedure and implementation to integrate the logistic trends of the future and vessel design between China and Japan. To estimate the future logistic trends, authors made regression equation for trade value on per capita GDP of China and Japan. Several types of fleets were designed by a method which calculates the most efficient specifications depending on the travel speed, and were evaluated by the net present value of each fleet. Authors designed fleet between China and Japan, especially between Shanghai and Tokyo. And under some assumptions, the system provided a result that the fleet with four 25-knot ships offers the highest value of investment.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文