進路希望の構造と変容 : 進路多様校を対象とした学校パネル調査データの分析 (津金澤聡廣教授・松本眞一教授・西川一廉教授退任記念号)

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The purpose of our study is to examine the process of changes in academic and career expectations of students at SHINROTAYOUKOU schools(general and vocational high schools which send students in different direction). Our research method is a kind of mixed methods research(MMR)which consists of several-wave panel surveys(quantitative research)and qualitative research. In this paper, we used data from four-wave panel surveys on students at five SHINROTAYOUKOU schools collected between the tenth grade and the twelfth grade and examined structure of academic and career expectations and its change. The following results were obtained. Firstly, it was found that the number of expectations decreased and converged toward 1 as terms passed away and at the general high schools, many students expected postsecondary education while at the vocational high schools, many students expected to work after graduation(tracking effect). It was also found that some students changed their expectation and wanted to enter a four-year university, a few students at general high school wanted to be freeters(underemployed workers)at the twelfth grade, and the tracking effects had been decreasing. Secondly, the multiple corresponding analysis showed the structure of expectations was different between general high school students and vocational high school students. Using log-linear analysis, we found some students returned to their original expectations after two-wave in addition to a Markov pattern. Analyzing the associations between categories in detail, we found three effects at general high schools and five effects at vocational ones, but whether these effects exist or not depended on timing. Thirdly, we analyzed the causes of the change in expectation from working to entering a four-year university. The result showed social backgrounds had no effect on the change in the expectation but those who were at general high schools or those who got high grades were more likely to change. In addition to this, we analyzed these effects from a time-varying perspective and found that those who were at general high schools were more likely to change in the first half of school life and those who got high grades were more likely to change in the latter half of school life. Finally, we analyze the effects on students with no expectations. Those who were at general high schools were more likely to have no expectations in the first half of school life and those who got worse grade were more likely to have no expectations in the latter half of school life. In addition to this, career expectations, consumptive orientation and taking advantage of academic and career information were found to have effects on students with no expectations in some periods. Most research concerning academic and career expectations or choices have conducted one-wave surveys or two-wave panel surveys at best. Our results, however, suggest that the timing is important and conducting several-wave panel surveys and analyzing the data yield fruitful results.
桃山学院大学の論文
2008-03-10

進路希望の構造と変容 : 進路多様校を対象とした学校パネル調査データの分析 (津金澤聡廣教授・松本眞一教授・西川一廉教授退任記念号)

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