横浜港に出入する湾内流動船の時系列論的研究

概要

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According to the regulation, the ships which were going to depart from a harbour or arrived at a harbour, must submit the declaration inward/outward of vessel to the harbour master. We extracted the ships from these reports which apparently flowed within the Tokyo Bay and arrived at or departed from the Yokohama Port in 1982. In this paper, we tried to separate the time history data in one year into (Trend Component)+(Weekly Adjustment)+(Irregular Component) by using the entirely new method called "A Bayesian Seasonal Adjustment Method" which was proposed by Dr. Akaike. According to the result, the time history showed the following tendency; (1) those did not show a significant upward or downward trend throughout one year, namely had a constant ship's flow, (2) in weekly variations, those repeated a characteristic and ordinary pattern which had the maximum values on Tuesdays and Fridays and the minimum ones on Sundays.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
1986-09-25