327 シベリア森林火災のモデリングと将来の炭酸ガス収支に対する火災影響(環境数値シミュレーション,大気・水保全技術)

概要

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Forest in Siberia plays important role for absorbing carbon dioxide. However, resent increase in forest fires, due to both human negligence and global warming, appears to cause significant damage on the forest. The present research tries to establish simulation model, which enables to predict forest fire effect over thousand years, and to evaluate the effects of forest fire on long term balance of CO_2 in Siberia. The result of the analysis shows that the major factor affecting on long-term forest area is the probability of fire extension and the number of fires in a year would not make apparent difference in the forest area due to feedback mechanism of fire sizes. The prediction was confirmed by the analysis of the remote sensing data. The paper shows the substantial danger of global warming effect on long-term forest area, whereas human negligence effect may be small.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2005-07-06