消費者の車両選好特性モデルに基づく将来型自動車の普及分析(熱工学,内燃機関,動力など)

概要

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Increasing CO_2 emissions from vehicles is becoming a major concern in automotive society, and variety of future types of cars are intensively developed. This paper investigates the possibility of market growth of future cars, as hybrid-cars, electric vehicles and fuel cell cars, based on the consumer selection model for their performance and cost. The consumer model was calibrated by the statistics of past data. The cost and performance of each type of cars was estimated based on data from literature. The result of the analysis shows that during the next 20 years hybrid vehicles with engine and electric motor will take a major market share as well as conventional gasoline cars. The paper shows critical cost of fuel cell vehicles to have 10% share in 2020. Estimation of CO_2 emission change is also made for variety of scenarios.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2003-01-25