箱根駅伝における各選手の区間記録の予測

概要

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Performance times of distance runners were predicted bassed on the 16-km time differential trail (2004) and 20-km grouped trial (2005) runs on the same training course before Hakone-Ekiden event. From these data, predicted and target performance times were estimated by using changes in split time (min/5km) and surplus performance for each distance runner after the trials. After the Hakone-Ekiden event, actual performance time for each distance runner was obtained and the errors (predicted performance time-actual performance time, and target performance time-actual performance time) were calculated. Errors were indices of accurate estimation of each performance time in Hakone-Ekiden event. The split time (min/5km) in 16-km time differential trial run showed large individual difference at the end of the trail. However, the 20-km grouped trial run exhibited small individual difference at 15-km and at even 20-km the deviation was relatively small. Predicted performance times were more accurate for the 20-km grouped trial run than for 16-km time differential trial run. Based on these results, 20-km grouped trial run was more suitable for to the prediction of actual performance times for distance runners in the Hakone-Ekiden event.
2006-03-31