外来処方せん枚数の経時的予測 : 外来患者受付数データの利用

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Prediction of the number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of time in an ambulatory-care pharmacy was examined. Data from our university hospital for 1989-1990 are used to predict the number of outpatient prescriptions. A simple forecasting method that provides a way for pharmacy manager and outpatients to estimate waiting time is presented. Based on the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions to the number of outpatients and the coefficient of canceled appointments by outpatients and so on in each clinical department, the forecasting equations are established as follows: [numerical formula] ψ: expected number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of timeψ_1: expected number of outpatient prescriptions in i-th clinical departmentαi・a: the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department at 8:30αi・b: the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department at 1l: 00 or 17:00β: the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions of the all clinical departments except for clinical departments shown in table 3(δ and γ) to that of all clinical departmentsγi: the coefficient of canceled appointments by outpatients in i-th clinical departmentδi: the ratio of the number of outpatient prescriptions to the number of outpatients in i-th clinical department It is possible to estimate the number of outpatient prescriptions with the passage of time using hospital information service about the number of outpatients(α1・a and αi・b). First, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions was calculated by the forecasting equations at 1l:00. Secondary, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions was added a constant value depending on the number of outpatient prescription at 1l:00. For example, on Thurs-day, if the number of outpatient prescription(Rp.#) at 1l: 00 is less than Rp.#270 or more than Rp.#350, the expected number of outpatient prescriptions minus 50 or plus 50 is the final expected number of outpatient prescriptions, respectively.
日本医療薬学会の論文
1992-06-20

外来処方せん枚数の経時的予測 : 外来患者受付数データの利用

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