銅の価格予測と近未来における発展途上国の増産計画の影響

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Our objects are 1) providing a method for forecasting the future copper price, 2)forecasting the future copper price applying our method and 3)evaluating the expansion plans of copper supply in developing countries, especially in Chile (from 2000 to 2002). Our method for forecasting copper price is as follows. First of all, the supply and demand functions in copper market are estimated by 2SLS (two stage least squares). The independent variables of supply function are copper price, the present mine production and the previous mine production. Those of demand function are copper price and the world GDP. Secondly, we calculate the critical prices for closure for the existing copper mines and then we can estimate the maximum copper supply (the copper supply frontier) for various copper prices. Thirdly, we forecast the future copper price using the estimated supply and demand functions and the copper supply frontier. The expansion plans of copper supply in developing countries (2000~2002) have a considerable effect on the forecasted future copper price. It can be thought that those countries, especially Chile have the expansion plans strategically. That is, some of the existing mines will have to be closed in 2000 and 2001 because of low prices derived by the expansion plans in developing countries. As a result, the developing countries can increase largely their profits in the relatively high price period (2002) followed by the low price period (2000~2001).
社団法人資源・素材学会の論文
2000-11-25

銅の価格予測と近未来における発展途上国の増産計画の影響

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銅の価格予測と近未来における発展途上国の 増産計画の影響

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概要

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関連論文

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銅の価格予測と近未来における発展途上国の増産計画の影響