鉱山における不確実性下での開山・閉山・生産能力拡張に関する意思決定

概要

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The uncertainty included in metal price is a very serious problem in the metal industry. Under uncertainty, extracting firms must decide when a mine should be developed, when it should be closed, or when its productive capacity should be expanded. Such decisionmakings as development, closure, and capacity expansion depend on the critical prices. For example, a mine should be developed only when the metal price rise up to the critical level. In this paper, we discuss analytical solutions for the critical prices in some cases, and then examine the effects of the lifetime of a mine and the size of uncertainty included in the metal price on the critical prices for development, closure, and capacity expansion. We conclude the results as follows. First, all critical prices are decreasing functions of the lifetime of the mine. Secondly, the critical prices for development and capacity expansion are increasing functions of the size of uncertainty, but the one for closure is a decreasing function of the size of uncertainty.
社団法人資源・素材学会の論文
1999-08-25