コンフリクト状況のマクロ構造分析--長崎大水害後の復興事業をめぐる「感度分析」

概要

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'Conflict analysis'followed by'sensitivity analysis', a kind of meta-game theory, was applied to a conflict over restoration planning of the Megane-bashi bridge damaged in the 1982 Flood in Nagasaki. First, through a review of relevant newspaper articles and intensive interviews with the players involved (i. e. Nagasaki city office, a citizen movement group advocating reconstruction of the bridge, and a collection of ordinary citizens), the options available to each player and their preferences for possible outcomes were determined. Second, through conflict analysis, the most likely solution to the conflict was predicted in terms of equilibrium solution. Finally, sensitivity analysis clarified the stability conditions of the equilibrium against fluctuations in each player's preferences. The results showed that sensitivity analysis was a valuable method for evaluating macro-level structure of a conflict from the perspective of micro (player's preferences) and macro (equilibrium solution) dynamics. Some practical significance of the method was discussed.