避航操船に関する視認システムの信頼性について

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The author assumed that collision of ships shall be caused by failure of watch system which is composed between the time of discovering a ship and the time of collision. Therefore the interval of the time is a life of the system. Data of the time were collected, and the reliabilities of watch systems were analyzed by Weibull distribution. Watch systems were classified into watching vessels system in day time, watching lights system in night, and watching system by radar. The assumption that collision of ships is caused by failure of watch system is acceptable, the conclusions are as follows : 1) Mortarity of watching vessels system in day time is caused by fatigue failure until the time of 5 minutes, therefore collisions of fatigue failure type are avoidable in the case of watching for time of more than 5 minutes at the first distance of more than 4,000 m. 2) Mortarity after the time of 5 minutes in above cases is caused by random failure by the reason that purpose in course of vessel is not able to judged. 3) Mortarity of watching lights system in night is complexed of fatigne failure and random failure, information made by ships lights has low reliability. 4) The watching system by radar image has the supperior reliability, by the reason that the system composes a parallel system with human's eye and watching time is maintained at least 1.5 minutes. 5) In watching vessels system of day time, the first distances of discovery from small ships distribute uniformly in large range but the first distances of discovery from large vessels are almost constant (20〜50 times of length of watching vessel). In watching lights system and watching system by the radar, first distances of discovery distribute uniformly in large range on all ships.
独立行政法人海上技術安全研究所の論文
1980-09-30

避航操船に関する視認システムの信頼性について

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