水産物を考慮した食料経済モデルの構築

概要

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A food economic model including fishery products is developed by expanding IFPSIM which was originally made for analyzing agricultural economic polices. Fishery products are introduced by categorizing fish species according to patterns of supply and demand, by modeling production and demand for typical fish species, and by extending the model to all fishery products. By comparing simulation results and actual data for the period from 1988 to 2002, we confirmed that the developed model simulated the long-term changes in production and prices of each fish categories and the whole marine products with reasonable accuracy. Although future studies are necessary to assess the validity of quantitative results generated in this study, we proposed a valid framework for an economic model of food supply and demand including both agricultural and fishery products. In simulations, using the developed model to forecast food self-sufficiency, it is demonstrated that self-sufficiency in fishery products, which do not rely on feed grain, would make a substantial contribution to overall self-sufficiency in sources of essential animal protein.
日本水産工学会の論文
2009-02-15