Prediction Analysis for Measles Epidemics
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概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
A newly devised procedure of prediction analysis, which is a linearized version of the nonlinear least squares method combined with the maximum entropy spectral analysis method, was proposed. This method was applied to time series data of measles case notification in several communities in the UK, USA and Denmark. The dominant spectral lines observed in each power spectral density (PSD) can be safely assigned as fundamental periods. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated using these fundamental periods can essentially reproduce the underlying variation of the measles data. An extension of the LSF curve can be used to predict measles case notification quantitatively. Some discussions including a predictability of chaotic time series are presented.
- Published by the Japan Society of Applied Physics through the Institute of Pure and Applied Physicsの論文
- 2003-12-15
著者
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Sawamura Sadashi
Faculty Of Engineering Hokkaido University
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Olsen Lars
Department Of Biochemistry Odense University
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Ohtomo Norio
Faculty Of Engineering Hokkaido University
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Kobayashi Nobumichi
Department Of Hygiene Sapporo Medical University School Of Medicine
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Tanaka Yukio
Suwa Trust Co. Ltd.
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Sumi Ayako
Department Of Hygiene And Preventive Medicine Hokkaido University School Of Medicine
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Ohtomo Norio
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060, Japan
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Sawamura Sadashi
Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060, Japan
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Sumi Ayako
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo 060, Japan
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Kobayashi Nobumichi
Department of Hygiene, Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Sapporo 060, Japan
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Tanaka Yukio
Suwa Trust Co., Ltd., Ohmori, Tokyo 143, Japan
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