減肉率可変モデルにおける配管破損確率評価のための拡張ベイズ手法

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Because of the lessening number of maintenance experts, a method to rationalize pipe inspection interval is desired. For this purpose, the evaluation method for the pipe integrity in the form of failure probability has been developed based on the Bayesian inference method in the previous paper. In this paper, the previous method is called the linear-Bayes method. The linear-Bayes method assumes wall thinning due to Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) as the principal damage mechanism, and it can define the safety margin of a pipe's residual life depending on the number of inspections. However, the linear-Bayes method ignores the corrosion rate fluctuation against time, which may be caused by the change of environment such as water chemistry and flow velocity. Therefore, the linear-Bayes method may underestimate the failure probability of the pipe segments if the online monitoring of the environments is not used. In this paper, the linear-Bayes method is extended for the wall-thinning model with the corrosion rate fluctuation. The extension is carried out through following two approaches : correction-term and error-term approaches. In this paper, the formulation and the procedure for each approach are shown at first. And then, the accuracy and the merit of the extended method are examined through the evaluation using the artificial and the actual inspection records. Through the examination, it is confirmed that the extended method makes the evaluation of the pipe integrity available in view of safety margin for the corrosion rate fluctuation, keeping the merits of the linear-Bayes method.
日本材料学会の論文

減肉率可変モデルにおける配管破損確率評価のための拡張ベイズ手法

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