Flexible Bayesian approach for psychological modeling of decision making.

概要

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In this paper, we propose the flexible Bayesian approach to describe the psychological decision making process. That is, by easing the Bayesian Axiom system, we come up with higher order probability and flexible utitiliy assessment. The purpose of this paper is to check whether the flexible Bayesian approach can explain some counter-intuitive examples. Using a questionnaire, we asked the subjects (undergraduate students, n=203) to evaluate the subjective probabilities and the betting preferences in the Ellsberg's Urn Problem and the Three Prisoners Problem. For the Ellsberg's Urn Problem, higher order probability was adequate to explain the paradox, more so than the non-additive representation of uncertainty. For the Three Prisoners Problem, higher order mathematical probability fails to explain the subjects' responses, which are stubbornly against Bayesian probability, but the fuzzy representation of higher order probability by means of the membership function was adequate for the explanation of this paradox.
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