住家倒壊による閉じ込め者の震後余命特性 : モデルの構築と神戸における適用(A.被害予測と緊急対応)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
An attempt of modeling was made to estimate life span characteristics of entrapped occupants under collapsed houses in a devastating earthquake. Kobe city was selected as a testing area of modeling in consideration of the 1995 Hyogoken-nanbu earthquake with M=7.3. First, death causes were classified into 5 major modes in terms of remaining life span or time length changing from 5-6 minutes for suffocated occupants to several days for either starved or dehydrated occupants who suffered no injury. Second, life span characteristic function was described for each mode in use of Weibull function with mode-dependent shape and location parameters. Third, by summing up all the characteristic functions with weighted coefficients proportional to the existing rates of entrapped occupants by mode, a unified life span characteristic equation (=survival rate function) was obtained. We are in the belief that the mathematical modeling and regarding simulation of life span characteristics after an earthquake provide fundamental information for exploring better Search And Rescue strategies and operations.
地域安全学会の論文