49. 地震時死傷者予測式の構成に向けて(2)(VIII. 被害予測と緊急対応その4,第VIIIセッション,第8回(平成10年度)地域安全学会研究発表会)

概要

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In the previous paper we insisted the importance of constructing 3 different prediction equations of earthquake casualty. Those are the equation at the immediate situation after seismic shaking ceases, the equation when no Search And Rescue (SAR) activity can be operated for the entrapped people under collapsed houses and the equation involving the positive effect with SAR activity. The attempt of constructing the equations was, however, made only in conceptual basis. Since then, we have been making a special effort to develop the equations one by one. In this paper we describe an outline of the construction of the first and second equations, out of the above three, and demonstrate the significance of those equations for exploring the optimal strategy for human casualty reduction.