72. 地震時死傷者予測式改訂の在り方(X. 一般論文等その4,第Xセッション,第7回(平成9年度)地域安全学会研究発表会)

概要

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Until the time when the Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake took place, there was no significant development in earthquake casualty equation construction studies which are over Kawasumi's pioneering work in 1954. Stimulated by the earthquake, however, studies on casualty occurrence have been conducted. But, they are more or less within the scope by Kawasumi and so still insufficient, for example, for use in planning of earthquake protection strategies. This requires more comprehensive thoughts and resulted upgrading of earthquake casualty equations. In this view and based on field surveys in devastated areas by the earthquake we emphasize in this paper the special importance of constructing new casualty equations good for multi-step predictions in relation with elapsed times after an earthquake, and discusses major factors to take into consideration at upgrading of the equations.