予測結果に基づく不規則波中における小型船の横揺れ特性の考察

概要

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Compared with other kind of ships, small fishing boats tend to roll by relatively small wave. Especially, rolling motion with sudden change is very dangerous for crew working on the deck. Therefore estimation for rolling motion is very important. However, it is dangerous to predict rolling motion recklessly without consideration for limitation of prediction models. In many cases, the prediction model for ship motions in irregular seas is based upon probabilistic considerations such as a typical conventional method with an auto-regression method. In recent years, some new methods have been attempted to estimate for rolling motion of small fishing boats. In this study, in addition to linear auto-regression method, it had been tried to predict the rolling motion by using local reconstruction method and radial basis function network. According to results by above prediction methods, this paper describes the characteristics of the rolling motion of small boats in irregular seas and discusses the relation between the results of fractal analysis of time series and predictions.
社団法人日本航海学会の論文
2000-03-25