わが国周辺海域における波高の極値の推定

概要

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This study discusses not only the storm-type separated characteristics of return wave height and its variability but also their compounded characteristics on the sea area around Japan. For this purpose, wave hindcasting using a second generation model was conducted on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean grid with an 80 km distance for each of 454 typhoons over 51 years and for each of 148 lows over 20 years separately. Return wave height and its standard deviation are estimated applying an LSM-based extreme value analysis model to each of the typhoon- and low-generated annual maximum wave height data samples, and then their compounded estimates are obtained by a probabilistic composition. Main findings are that in most of the concerned sea area, typhoons generate much greater wave heights than low pressure systems and that in the Japan Sea, typhoon- and low-generated wave heights are comparable. Also, wave hindcasting and the analysis on the Japan Sea and on the East China Sea suggest that the effect of space resolution associated with the grid on return wave height may be significant in limited sea areas.
愛媛大学の論文