日本海における気象擾乱別年最大波高の母分布と確率波高の標本分布の推定

概要

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A massive sample of typhoon- or cyclone low-generated wave heights over 10,000 years on the Japan Sea is produced using a Monte Carlo simulation model and a parent distribution of the storm-type-separated or storm-free type annual maximum (AM) wave height is estimated based on the extreme value analysis and its statistical composition. The main findings are that the parent distribution of storm-type-separated AM wave height is well approximated by either the Weibull distribution or the Gumbel distribution and that the parent distribution of storm-free type AM wave height is strongly affected by that of predominant storm-type-separated AM wave height. Next, 200 sets of a 50 size sample are made from the storm-type-separated AM wave height sample of 10,000 size and an extreme value analysis is conducted for each sample of 50 size in the known or unknown shape parameter case. Other findings in each of the typhoon and cyclone low cases are that identification of the parent distribution may lead to a reduction of confidence interval of the return wave height and that a sample distribution of return wave height is better approximated by the Weibull distribution rather than the normal distribution in detailed aspects.
愛媛大学の論文