ブイ観測資料を用いたわが国周辺海域での気圧・風速・波高の極値の推定

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Return values and their standard deviations of sea-level pressure, wind speed and wave height are estimated at 4 buoy stations in the sea areas around Japan. Peaks over threshold (POT) data are extracted from the observation data reinforced by the analysis data or hindcast data with a period of 12 to 20 years, and the POT data set is also stratified into 2 sub-groups according to its generation source such as typhoon and the other type of storms. Not only the return value and its standard deviation for each data set but also their compounded values for 2 source-separated data sets are evaluated. A quantitative indication in the study is that return value of each element in typhoon-dominating sea areas such as the offshore area of southwestern Japan and the East China Sea is much greater than that in extratropical cyclone-dominating sea areas such as the offshore area of northeastern Japan and the Japan Sea, although the estimate is less reliable in typhoon-dominating sea areas due to larger sample variability. Another finding is that the extreme analysis using stratified data of sea-level pressure and wind speed in typhoon-dominating sea areas gives rise to more reliable estimate of return value compared to the conventional analysis using unstratified data.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2000-05-31