51年波浪推算に基づく北西太平洋における波高の傾向変動の解析

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Hourly-wave hindcastings over a period of 51 years from 1948 to 1998 are conducted location by location at 52 properly-selected points on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean by applying a Shallow water wave model with use of a backward ray tracing method on a grid with 5 km space resolution. The input wind data are extracted from the 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface wind data archive. Comparison with measurement data for winds and waves at buoy stations in the recent 10 years verifies generally reasonable estimates of reanalysis wind data and hindcast wave data for monthly- or yearly-grouped mean and highest 1/3 mean values. The main conclusions are that remarkable increasing trends of winds and the resulting waves in the first 10 years from 1948 to 1957 are probably related to the wind data quality problem and that increasing trends of both wind and wave climate parameters during the recent 41 years are found on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean area where the strength intensifies toward the northeast sea area, while statistically significant trends over the same period are not detected on the sea area around Japan.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2002-02-28