日本海西南部海域における波浪の極値の推定

概要

論文の詳細を見る
High waves in the southwestern area of the Japan sea brought about by the severe storm on Feb. 3 to 4,1987 are hindcast with the use of two kinds of shallow water spectral prediction model, referred to as a point model and a grid model. Comparison of the computation with the observation shows that the finer the mesh size of the grid system used is, the better the agreement between them becomes. Based on the analysis of existing wave data and the wave data hindcast with the point model, the winter storm on Jan. 4 to 5,1971 as well as the above-mentioned storm is picked up as an extraordinary meteorological disturbance which generated the most extreme waves in the concerned sea area in the past 40 years. Spatial distributions of the maximum wave height during both storms computed with the grid model are compared and the finding is that both storms brought about severe waves with similar height and pattern in the concerned area. At the 4 selected points in the area, wave height with return period of 100 years and return period of extreme waves generated by the above-mentioned storms are evaluated with the use of the Gumbel distribution fitted to annual maximum wave height data.
日本自然災害学会の論文
1990-08-31