確率的台風モデルと波高重回帰モデルに基づく台風時波浪の極値の推定

概要

論文の詳細を見る
This paper presents a system for estimating extremes of typhoon-generated waves over a long term at a prescribed point. The system consists of four kinds of models. They are a Monte-Carlo simulation model for probabilistic generation of typhoon characteristics, termed stochastic typhoon model, a parametric typhoon model for wind estimation, a multiple regression model for estimation of maximum wave height during a typhoon, and an extreme analysis model for estimation of return wave heights. Extreme wave heights for return periods of 50 to 1,000 years and their variability ranges are estimated from the simulated data at observation points along the Pacific coast of Western Japan. The return wave heights are in general agreement with those estimated from the observed data in spite of an extremely great difference between simulated and observed periods.
日本自然災害学会の論文
1995-10-01