Longitudinal study of the lateness as a predictor of absenteeism: A three-year longitudinal study in a public junior high school in Japan

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Although it is generally believed that frequent lateness might lead to absenteeism, the evidence for this has not been ascertained. We investigated the relationship between earlier lateness and subsequent absenteeism in a three-year longitudinal study in a public junior high school in Japan. The participants were 263 students (124 males, 139 females) whose school records were available for three consecutive academic years. Kaplan-Meier survival curves revealed that students who had been late for 30 or more days during their 1st year of junior high school were significantly more likely to show absenteeism during 2nd and 3rd year than students who had been late less than 30 days. Cox's proportional hazards regression model confirmed that frequent lateness was the only significant predictor, after controlling socio-demographics and psychosocial variables including stressors at school and stress responses. The substantial linkage of frequent lateness to absenteeism found in this study suggests the necessity of paying more attention to lateness for the prevention of absenteeism.