43. SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE YAMAGUCHI PREFECTURE

概要

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The seismic risk for the Yamaguchi Prefecture is estimated based on the historical earthquake data and the active fault data. The historical earthquake records provide information for the past few hundred years whereas active fault data are based on the seismic activity over million of years. The procedure for calculating the earthquake occurrence rate that the acceleration exceeds a value at a particular site is derived from the attentuation equation. The peak acceleration at the bed rock level is calculated first. Then, the acceleration at the surface ground is obtained by imposing the amplification factors. Risk maps for the Yamaguchi Prefecture for a return period of 100 and 50 years are calculated. The expected peak accelerations are 25 gal at the bed rock level and 80 gal at the ground surface both for 100 and 50 years. The hazard curves of specific cities within Yamaguchi are also estimated. The peak acceleration based on the historical data for a return period of 100 years is high for Ube compared to other cities namely Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi, Tokuyama, Iwakuni and Hagi. On the other hand, the peak acceleration based on the active fault is relatively high for Iwakuni.
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