確率的なウェザールーティングに関する研究 : 航海時間と燃料消費量の標準偏差の推定精度

概要

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In carrying out ship weather routing, it is very informative for the shipmaster if the standard deviations of predicted passage time and fuel consumption on the recommended route can be estimated at the departure time. In this study, the accuracy of forecasted winds, waves and ocean currents was represented as the covariance matrices of the forecast errors and the correlations between successive forecast errors. Based on these covariance matrices and correlations, a method of estimating the standard deviations of passage time and fuel consumption on a particular route was described. Using 10-day wind/wave forecast data and information on the accuracy of the forecast for the North Pacific Ocean, numerous stochastic weather routing simulations were performed. From the results of the simulations, it was concluded that the standard deviations of passage times and fuel consumptions on the various routes could be accurately estimated at the departure time.
2001-03-25