アンサンブル予報を用いたウェザールーティングの実用性について

概要

論文の詳細を見る
When planning a transoceanic voyage, ships weather routeing is a valuable tool, which using an optimization method can help achieve different objectives. The accuracy of the generated optimized route depends on a large degree on the range and accuracy of the forecasted weather data that is necessary to describe the evolution of the weather conditions throughout the voyage. With the development of the ensemble prediction system, a new source of weather information for relatively longer times became available. In this study, the usability of the one month wind ensemble issued by the Japan meteorological agency is investigated. Simulations were carried for three transoceanic routes that take over 16 days, using various weather inputs; traditional routeing methods are compared with the use of the ensemble mean and its combination with the traditional deterministic forecast and both methods are scored against the most optimal route obtained by the use of the forecast analysis. Results show that the use of the mean of the ensemble forecast may help achieve voyage times closer to the optimal ones, and the spread of the routes generated by using different weather inputs can give an idea about the certainty of the obtained route.
2012-03-25